🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|